EXCLUSIVE. The Economist Intelligence Unit: The upcoming decision on Romania’s Schengen membership for 2014 will be negative
In the recently released Country Forecast titled “Romania at a glance: 2013-2017”,
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) opines that, although in a confortable position given by the decisive majority won in the recent general elections, due to the continuing disaccord among political parties forming the union and that is expected to “come to the fore” again, USL (Social Liberal Union) will not be able to implement its policy agenda. The Presidential opposition, says EIU, may also hamper the implementation of USL’s reforms.”
In the analysis that Select News accessed exclusively, EIU anticipates that the opposition of some EU member states will block Romania’s Schengen membership in 2014.
The economic forecast of EIU indicates a real GDP growth rate of 2.4% in 2013. The figure is above the initial estimate, but still limited by the persisting recession in the Euro zone. Despite the 2013 growth rate exceeding expectations, reducing the budget deficit towards meeting the 2.1% of GDP target will remain difficult for the Government unless it adopts unpopular public spending cuts and state owned enterprise restructuring.
The growth forecast for 2014-2017 indicates an average annual growth rate under 4%. For the same period of time, the current-account deficit is estimated at around 5%.
As the EIU’s forecast is revised every month, changes from the previous month are tracked distinctly to capture positive and negative developments that have a potential long-term impact on the economy.
The EIU Country Forecast for Romania could be accessed HERE.
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